Theories for ecological restoration in changing environment: Toward 'futuristic' restoration

Ecological restoration is one of the fastest growing fields in applied ecology providing new ideas and opportunities for biological conservation and natural resource management. Despite countless attempts in the past, large portions of restoration projects have been considered unsuccessful mainly due to: unrealistic goals; inadequate restoration plans based on an ad-hoc approach; lack of explicit and quantified evaluation criteria for restoration success; lack of ecological understanding; social, economic, and political constraints; or combinations of these factors. Existing ecological theories, particularly succession theories, may provide a conceptual framework for a restoration trajectory. However, projecting a 'desirable' trajectory and outcome is often challenged by the unpredictability of ecological communities in the changing environment. Particularly, the sustainability of reconstructed 'historic' ecosystems appears to be an unlikely goal in the ever-changing and unpredictable future environment. This paper calls for a shift in the restoration paradigm from 'historic' to 'futuristic.' A 'futuristic' restoration is: (i) to set realistic and dynamic (instead of static) goals for future, instead of past, environment; (ii) to assume multiple trajectories acknowledging the unpredictable nature of ecological communities and ecosystems; (iii) to take an ecosystem or landscape approach, instead of ad-hoc gardening, for both function and structure; (iv) to evaluate the restoration progress with explicit criteria, based on quantitative inference; and (v) to maintain long-term monitoring of restoration outcomes. A theoretical framework for 'futuristic' restoration, in terms of goals, trajectories, evaluation criteria, and monitoring, along with a historical perspective is presented in this paper.