Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages

The paper provides a systematic development of the forecasting expressions for exponential weighted moving averages. Methods for series with no trend, or additive or multiplicative trend are examined. Similarly, the methods cover non-seasonal, and seasonal series with additive or multiplicative error structures. The paper is a reprinted version of the 1957 report to the Office of Naval Research (ONR 52) and is being published here to provide greater accessibility. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters.