Are federal programs immortal? Estimating the hazard of program termination

Two perspectives on program longevity inform work on the life cycle and political control of federal programs. One set of work represents programs as immortal and implies that elected officials face severe problems controlling programs. A second set of work claims that programs face pressures that lead to termination. A single empirical feature-the hazard of program termination over time-distinguishes these mutually exclusive perspectives. A survival data analysis strategy is applied to a sample of federal credit programs to estimate this hazard. The data indicate high risks of termination early in the life of a program and lower risks as programs age. Further, the types of new programs that are terminated-programs that rely on direct loans or are housed in independent agencies-influence the long-term structure of federal intervention in capital markets.