A systematic approach to simulating metabolism in computational toxicology. I. The TIMES heuristic modelling framework

Designing biologically active chemicals and managing their risks requires a holistic perspective on the chemical-biological interactions that form the basis of selective toxicity. The balance of therapeutic and adverse outcomes for new drugs and pesticides is managed by shaping the probabilities for transport, metabolism, and molecular initiating events. For chemicals activated as well as detoxified by metabolism, selective toxicity may be considered in terms of relative probabilities.. which shift dramatically across species as well as within a population, depending on many factors. The complexity in toxicology that results from metabolism has been troublesome in QSAR research because the parent structure is less relevant to predicting ultimate effects and finding reference species/conditions for metabolic rates seems hopeless. Even the complexity of comparative xenobiotic metabolism itself seems paradoxical in light of the evidence of highly conserved catabolic processes across species. Clearly, predicting the role of metabolism in selective toxicity and adverse health outcomes requires a probabilistic framework for deterministic models as well as the many factors shaping the metabolic probability distributions under specific conditions. This paper presents a tissue metabolism simulator (TIMES), which uses a heuristic algorithm to generate plausible metabolic maps from a comprehensive library of biotransformations and abiotic reactions and estimates for system-specific transformation probabilities. The transformation probabilities can be calibrated to specific reference conditions using transformation rate information from systematic testing. In the absence of rate data, a combinatorial algorithm is used to translate known metabolic maps taken from reference systems into best-fit transformation probabilities. Finally, toxicity test data itself can be used to shape the transformation probabilities for toxicity pathways in which the metabolic activation is the rate-limiting process leading to a toxic effect. The conceptual approach for metabolic simulation will be presented along with practical uses in forecasting plausible activated metabolites.