Empirical models of pollen limitation, resource acquisition, and mast seeding by a bee-pollinated wildflower

Synchronous mast seeding is increasingly recognized as common in plant populations. Recent theoretical models show that synchronous mast seeding could be a consequence of resource allocation and storage within individual plants, coupled by pollen limitation in low-flowering years. We used long-term population and weather data to parameterize models of flowering based on stored resources and pollen limitation in Astragalus scaphoides, a bee-pollinated plant that flowers in alternate years. We used these models to test whether internal resource dynamics could explain mast seeding in A. scaphoides and, if so, whether synchrony was caused by pollen limitation and/or fluctuations in precipitation. We compared predictions of models that included all combinations of three factors: constant versus precipitation-dependent resource gain, uniform versus heterogeneous resource gain (among individual plants), and resource-dependent versus resource- and pollen-limited fruit set. Pollen limitation and heterogeneous resource gain were necessary and sufficient to explain alternate-year flowering, but precipitation increased the quantitative match between model predictions and flowering dynamics. Together, our results support the importance of density-dependent pollen limitation as an ultimate and proximate cause of mast seeding in A. scaphoides. Precipitation does not act as a direct cue for synchrony in this species but might affect long-term resource gain and fruiting dynamics.