Journal
ANNALS OF APPLIED BIOLOGY
Volume 146, Issue 4, Pages 531-537Publisher
ASSOC APPLIED BIOLOGISTS
DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7348.2005.050016.x
Keywords
phenology; harvest; climate change; climate impact; agriculture
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This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a fanner in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990-2000 than in 1980-1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January-March mean temperature increased by 1.4 degrees C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each degrees C warmer. A comparison with historical fanning records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago.
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