Forecasting electron precipitation based on predicted geomagnetic activity

We have developed a statistical model of precipitating electrons based on 10 years worth of NOAA-12 Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data. For each hour of UT, the electron spectral shape is defined for solar activity (using F-10.7), geomagnetic activity (using Dst, Kp, and PC), invariant latitude (40 to 90 degrees N and -40 degrees to -90 degrees S), and every hour of magnetic local time to form a climatology. The current version of our climatology includes a description of the precipitating differential number flux, unfolded from the integral high-energy telescopes of SEM and its lower-energy differential measurements. In total, the energy range covered by SEM is from 300 eV to 1 MeV. We use real-time Dst predictions from several sites on the Internet which forecast Dst up to I h ahead of time to predict the corresponding precipitating electron flux. Our electron precipitation forecast contributes to space weather applications by predicting a spectral description of atmospheric electron energy input. These electron energy spectra can be used to generate atmospheric energy input, ionization rates and height-integrated Hall and Pedersen conductivities, which are important parameters to models such as AMIE and TIME-GCM. Our data could also improve the space environment description used in spacecraft charging models. (c) 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.