Genetic analysis of herd life in Canadian dairy cattle on a lactation basis using a Weibull proportional hazards model

The objectives of this study were to identify the most important factors that influence functional survival and to estimate the genetic parameters of functional survival for Canadian dairy cattle. Data were obtained from lactation records extracted for the May 2002 genetic evaluation of Holstein, Jersey, and Ayrshire breeds that calved between July 1, 1985 and April 5, 2002. Analysis was performed using a Weibull proportional hazard model, and the baseline hazard function was defined on a lactation basis instead of the traditional analysis of the whole length of life. The statistical model included the effects of stage of lactation; season of production; the annual change in herd size; type of milk recording supervision; age at first calving; effects of milk, fat, and protein yields calculated within herd-year-parity deviations; and the random effects of herd-year-season of calving and sire. All effects fitted in the model had a significant effect on functional survival of cows in all breeds. Milk yield was by far the most important factor influencing survival, and the hazard increased as the milk production of the cows decreased. The hazard also increased as the fat content increased compared with the average group. Heifers that were older at calving were at higher risk of being culled, and expanding herds were at lower risk of being culled compared with stable herds. More culling was found in unsupervised herds than in supervised herds. The heritability values obtained were 0.14, 0.10, and 0.09 for Holstein, Jersey, and Ayrshire, respectively. Rank correlation between estimated breeding values (EBV) obtained from the current national genetic evaluation of direct herd life and the survival kit used in this study ranged from 0.65 to 0.87, depending on the number of daughters per sire. Estimated genetic trend obtained using the survival kit was overestimated.