Journal
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY
Volume 142, Issue -, Pages 78-86Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2015.01.013
Keywords
Augmented ensemble Kalman filter; Emission estimate; Improve dispersion forecast; European Tracer Experiment; Nuclear power plant accident
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Funding
- National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) [2012AA050907]
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The accidental release of radioactive materials from nuclear power plant leads to radioactive pollution. We apply an augmented ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a chemical transport model to jointly estimate the emissions of Perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH), a tracer substitute for radionuclides, from a point source during the European Tracer Experiment, and to improve the forecast of its dispersion downwind. We perturb wind fields to account for meteorological uncertainties. We expand the state vector of PMCH concentrations through continuously adding an a priori emission rate for each succeeding assimilation cycle. We adopt a time-correlated red noise to simulate the temporal emission fluctuation. The improved EnKF system rapidly updates (and reduces) the excessively large initial first-guess emissions, thereby significantly improves subsequent forecasts (r = 0.83, p < 0.001). It retrieves 94% of the total PMCH released and substantially reduces transport error (>80% average reduction of the normalized mean square error). (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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