What can phylogenetics tell us about speciation in the Cape flora?

The spectacular diversity of the Cape flora has promoted wide speculation on the evolutionary processes behind its origins, but until recently these ideas could not be tested rigorously due to the almost complete absence of a fossil record for the region. Now, molecular phylogenetic approaches, combined with analyses of ecological and biogeographical information, offer the potential to test key hypotheses about speciation of so-called Cape clades of flowering plants. We outline the main theories and how they might be tested by phylogenetic approaches. One conclusion is that population level studies of particular species complexes are now needed to complement the growing volume of phylogenetic information for Cape clades and to provide better understanding of mechanisms of population divergence in the Cape. Another is that comparisons between Cape and non-Cape clades are needed to confirm whether speciation is indeed faster in the Cape region. An alternative possibility, that extinction rates are lower, should also be considered in these comparisons. By virtue of the ongoing, coordinated efforts by a global team of botanists, the Cape is now uniquely placed for exploring the origins and assembly of a regional assemblage or biome.