Journal
ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION
Volume 39, Issue 1, Pages 53-57Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.06.004
Keywords
zero-inflated models; statistical models; Poisson; negative binomial; statistical methods
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The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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