The potential impact of climate change on the Australian wool industry by 2030

By 2030, climate change is likely to have implications for the Australian wool industry, principally through effects on forage and water resources, land carrying capacity and sustainability, animal health, and competition with other sectors, in particular cropping. The nature and scale of these impacts will vary between the wool growing regions, depending on the manifestation of the climate change. The growth and quality of pasture and fodder crops may be affected by changes in rainfall amounts and variability as well as higher CO2 concentrations. Water resources in many regions are projected to decrease and become more variable. Animal health is expected to be adversely affected by rising temperatures and a greater incidence and range of pests and diseases. There is likely to be greater stress on the landscape principally brought about by rainfall deficits and increased climatic variability. There is also a strong possibility of increased competition for water and land resources from other agricultural activities, particularly cropping and meat production. The combination of these effects is likely to have an impact on both wool production and quality, with reduced productivity in marginal areas, possibly increased productivity in higher rainfall regions, increases in vegetable fault and dust contamination and changes in mean fibre diameter and staple strength. National and international markets could also be affected, with reductions in demand for apparel wool fibre in response to a more temperate climate. International production and supply markets might also shift, with the wetter wool growing areas of both New Zealand and China potentially being advantaged by climate change, and the drier wool regions of these countries being disadvantaged. A preliminary qualitative scenario analysis suggests that although the wool industry will be significantly affected by climate change, as a whole it is likely to be relatively robust to it. Early adaptation, for example through efforts to produce low emission grazing systems, more sustainable management especially in the rangelands, and improved management of the effects of climate variation, could significantly reduce the downsides of climate change impacts. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.