Proportion of US Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence Attributable to Long-term Changes in Risk Factor Distributions

Background: U.S. breast cancer incidence has been changing, as have distributions of risk factors, including body mass index (BMI), age at menarche, age at first live birth, and number of live births. Methods: Using data for U.S. women from large nationally representative surveys, we estimated risk factor distributions from 1980 to 2008. To estimate ecologic associations with breast cancer incidence, we fitted Poisson models to age-and calendar year-specific incidence data from the NCI's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results registries from 1980 to 2011. We then assessed the proportion of incidence attributable to specific risk factors by comparing incidence from models that only included age and calendar period as predictors with models that additionally included age-and cohort-specific categorized mean risk factors. Analyses were stratified by age and race. Results: Ecologic associations usually agreed with previous findings from analytic epidemiology. From 1980 to 2011, compared with the risk factor reference level, increased BMI was associated with 7.6% decreased incidence in women ages 40 to 44 and 2.6% increased incidence for women ages 55 to 59. Fewer births were associated with 22.2% and 3.99% increased incidence in women ages 40 to 44 and 55 to 59 years, respectively. Changes in age at menarche and age at first live birth in parous women did not significantly impact population incidence from 1980 to 2011. Conclusions: Changes in BMI and number of births since 1980 significantly impacted U.S. breast cancer incidence. Impact: Quantifying long-term impact of risk factor trends on incidence is important to understand the future breast cancer burden and inform prevention efforts. (C) 2018 AACR.