Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability

The area burnt each summer in Tasmania is related to coincident (summer) climate variables, especially the total summer rainfall. The relationship with temperature is weaker and largely reflects the relationship between rainfall and temperature. As the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is known to be related to Australian rainfall and simple indices of this phenomenon form the basis of the operational seasonal climate forecast scheme used in Australia, it is not surprising that indices of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation can also, it appears, provide a potentially useful forecast system for Tasmanian bushfire extent. In particular, sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea during winter are correlated with the area burnt in the following summer. The effect of summer rainfall on the area burnt each year suggests that global warming may not simply lead to increased burning, contrasting with the situation in other parts of the globe. A weak, long-term decline in area burnt appears to be due to a weak increase in summer rainfall.