The Impact of Trans-equatorial Monsoon Flow on the Formation of Repeated Torrential Rains over Java Island

Torrential rains that repeatedly occurred over Java Island causing widespread floods in late January and early February 2007 coincided with a strong and persistent trans-equatorial monsoon flow from the Northern Hemisphere. While convections develop frequently over the island's mountainous areas in the afternoon, convections over the northern plains are active during the night and morning hours. The strong trans-equatorial monsoon flow with an upper southeasterly wind produces a strong low-level vertical shear of wind and dry mid-level environment over the island. These conditions allow the severe convections to occur repeatedly for days and to sustain for an extended period of time. The results suggest that the trans-equatorial monsoon flow plays a principal role in the formation of the repeated torrential rains. The probability of occurrence of a strong and persistent trans-equatorial monsoon flow that causes torrential rains and widespread floods over Java Island is estimated to be once every 5-10 years.