Journal
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
Volume 188, Issue 2, Pages 558-568Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.03.018
Keywords
Home-purchase restriction; Property tax; Counterfactual; Cross validation; Housing price
Categories
Funding
- Ministry of Education of China [11XJC790002]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71401140]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities for SWUFE [JBK140138]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
In this paper, we respectively evaluate the effects of home-purchase restrictions and the trial property taxes on housing prices in China using a counterfactual analysis. We modify the method of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) by using the leave-n(v)-out cross-validation criterion for the optimal choice of the control cities. Some Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the better performance of our method. We then construct the counterfactual growth rates of housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing using the selected control cities. We find that: (i) purchase restrictions reduced the annual growth rate of housing prices in Beijing by 7.69 percent; (ii) the trial property tax of Chongqing reduced the annual growth rate of housing prices by 2.52 percent; (iii) the trial property tax of Shanghai had no significant effect on housing prices. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available