Journal
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
Volume 187, Issue 1, Pages 169-188Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.02.004
Keywords
Quantile impulse-responses; Spillover; Codependence; CAViaR
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Funding
- National Research Foundation of Korea - Korean Government [NRF-2009-327-B00088]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [327-2009-1-B00088] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
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This paper proposes methods for estimation and inference in multivariate, multi-quantile models. The theory can simultaneously accommodate models with multiple random variables, multiple confidence levels, and multiple lags of the associated quantiles. The proposed framework can be conveniently thought of as a vector autoregressive (VAR) extension to quantile models. We estimate a simple version of the model using market equity returns data to analyze spillovers in the values at risk (VaR) between a market index and financial institutions. We construct impulse-response functions for the quantiles of a sample of 230 financial institutions around the world and study how financial institution-specific and system-wide shocks are absorbed by the system. We show how the long-run risk of the largest and most leveraged financial institutions is very sensitive to market wide shocks in situations of financial distress, suggesting that our methodology can prove a valuable addition to the traditional toolkit of policy makers and supervisors. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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