Journal
NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS
Volume 15, Issue 4, Pages 557-565Publisher
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/npg-15-557-2008
Keywords
-
Categories
Funding
- EC project E2C2 [012975]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The distribution of extreme event return times and their correlations are analyzed in observed and simulated long-term memory (LTM) time series with 1/f power spectra. The analysis is based on tropical temperature and mixing ratio (specific humidity) time series from TOGA COARE with 1 min resolution and an approximate 1/f power spectrum. Extreme events are determined by PeakOver-Threshold (POT) crossing. The Weibull distribution represents a reasonable fit to the return time distributions while the power-law predicted by the stretched exponential for 1/f deviates considerably. For a comparison and an analysis of the return time predictability, a very long simulated time series with an approximate 1/f spectrum is produced by a fractionally differenced (FD) process. This simulated data confirms the Weibull distribution (a power law can be excluded). The return time sequences show distinctly weaker long-term correlations than the original time series (correlation exponent (gamma) over bar approximate to 0.56).
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available