East European Cities-Patterns of Growth and Decline, 1960-2005

The paper examines the long-term population trajectories of East European cities and analyses how their fortunes have changed, both in relation to their past growth profiles and to other settlements. The main finding is that the absolute and relative positions of cities have declined sharply since the 1960s and 1970s. During the last decade the population of three-quarters of cities has been contracting, and slightly faster on average than the overall population. The immediate explanation for the downturn appears to be general demographic decline, including a fall in the fertility rate and international out-migration, rather than specific urban factors. Some places have fared less badly than others, including many of the capital cities and the principal centres of rural regions.