Satellite Data Methods and Application in the Evaluation of War Outcomes: Abandoned Agricultural Land in Bosnia-Herzegovina After the 1992-1995 Conflict

The devastation of wars is most often measured in terms of the number of dead and missing people, but other conflict effects are long-lasting and far-reaching. The 1992-1995 war in Bosnia-Herzegovina resulted in almost 100,000 killed and almost half of the population displaced. This article analyzes the war's effects by evaluating impacts on the postwar agriculture environment from which most Bosnians derive their livelihoods. The war's impacts showed significant geographic variability, with localities near the frontlines and in eastern Bosnia-Herzegovina particularly affected. Thirty-meter Landsat imagery from before, during, and after the war was used to identify abandoned agricultural land in two study areas (northeast and south) within Bosnia-Herzegovina, characterized by different climates, soil, and vegetation. In the image analysis methodology, multiple change detection techniques were tested, and ultimately a supervised classification was chosen. Ground reference data collected during the spring seasons of 2006 and 2007 show the remote sensing methodology is effective in identifying abandoned agricultural land for the northeast study region but not for the southern one. The differential success rates were due primarily to variations in climate and soil conditions between the two regions, but also point to contrasts due to the different nature of the war in the two study regions. The study has important implications for the use of remote sensing data in tracking the course of conflicts and evaluating their long-term impacts.