Potential responders to FOLFOX therapy for colorectal cancer by Random Forests analysis

BACKGROUND: Molecular characterisation using gene-expression profiling will undoubtedly improve the prediction of treatment responses, and ultimately, the clinical outcome of cancer patients. METHODS: To establish the procedures to identify responders to FOLFOX therapy, 83 colorectal cancer (CRC) patients including 42 responders and 41 non-responders were divided into training (54 patients) and test (29 patients) sets. Using Random Forests (RF) algorithm in the training set, predictor genes for FOLFOX therapy were identified, which were applied to test samples and sensitivity, specificity, and out-of-bag classification accuracy were calculated. RESULTS: In the training set, 22 of 27 responders (81.4% sensitivity) and 23 of 27 non-responders (85.1% specificity) were correctly classified. To improve the prediction model, we removed the outliers determined by RF, and the model could correctly classify 21 of 23 responders (91.3%) and 22 of 23 non-responders (95.6%) in the training set, and 80.0% sensitivity and 92.8% specificity, with an accuracy of 69.2% in 29 independent test samples. CONCLUSION: Random Forests on gene-expression data for CRC patients was effectively able to stratify responders to FOLFOX therapy with high accuracy, and use of pharmacogenomics in anticancer therapy is the first step in planning personalised therapy. British Journal of Cancer (2012) 106, 126-132. doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.505 www.bjcancer.com Published online 17 November 2011 (C) 2012 Cancer Research UK