Journal
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
Volume 11, Issue 12, Pages 3227-3233Publisher
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11-3227-2011
Keywords
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Funding
- FCT
- Accoes Integradas Luso-Espanholas [E-83/09, HP2008-008, SEJ2007-64500]
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The analysis of trends in air temperature observations is one of the most common activities in climate change studies. This work examines the changes in daily mean air temperature over Central Europe using quantile regression, which allows the estimation of trends, not only in the mean but in all parts of the data distribution. A bootstrap procedure is applied for assessing uncertainty on the derived slopes and the resulting distributions are summarised via clustering. The results show considerable spatial diversity over the central European region. A distinct behaviour is found for lower (5%) and upper (95%) quantiles, with higher trends around 0.15 degrees C decade(-1) at the 5% quantile and around 0.20 degrees C decade(-1) at the 95% quantile, the largest trends (>0.2 degrees C decade(-1)) occurring in the Alps.
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