Journal
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
Volume 15, Issue 6, Pages 1937-1944Publisher
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/hess-15-1937-2011
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Funding
- University of Connecticut Research Foundation
- NASA [NNX08AR31G, NNX10AG77G]
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Understanding extreme precipitation is very important for Ethiopia, which is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture but lacks structural and nonstructural water regulating and storage mechanisms. There has been an increasing concern about whether there is an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate changes. Existing analysis of this region has been descriptive, without taking advantage of the advances in extreme value modeling. After reviewing the statistical methodology on extremes, this paper presents an analysis based on the generalized extreme value modeling with daily time series of precipitation records at Debre Markos in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. We found no strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis that there is no increasing trend in extreme precipitation at this location.
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