Numerical Simulation of the Heavy Rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Basin during Summer 2003 Using the WRF Model

In this study, a 47-day regional climate simulation of the heavy rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Basin during the summer of 2003 was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The simulation reproduces reasonably well the evolution of the rainfall during the study period's three successive rainy phases, especially the frequent heavy rainfall events occurring in the Huai River Basin. The model captures the major rainfall peak observed by the monitoring stations in the morning. Another peak appears later than that shown by the observations. In addition, the simulation realistically captures not only the evolution of the low-level winds but also the characteristics of their diurnal variation. The strong southwesterly (low-level jet, LLJ) wind speed increases beginning in the early evening and reaches a peak in the morning; it then gradually decreases until the afternoon. The intense LLJ forms a strong convergent circulation pattern in the early morning along the Yangtze-Huai River Basin. This pattern partly explains the rainfall peak observed at this time. This study furnishes a basis for the further analysis of the mechanisms of evolution of the LLJ and for the further study of the interactions between the LLJ and rainfall.