DO POLITICAL INSTABILITY, TERRORISM, AND CORRUPTION HAVE DETERRING EFFECTS ON TOURISM DEVELOPMENT EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF UNESCO HERITAGE? A CROSS-COUNTRY PANEL ESTIMATE

This article evaluates the effects of political instability, terrorism, and corruption on tourism development, particularly UNESCO-listed heritage destinations. Using a fixed-effects panel data analysis for 139 countries over the period 1999-2009, the result reveals that a one-unit increase in political instability decreases tourist arrivals and tourism revenue between 24% and 31% and 30% and 36%, respectively. Furthermore, in the presence of heritage, terrorism has negative effects on tourism demand even though its effect is lower than that of political instability. However, the study shows that an increase in corruption index would not have an adverse influence on tourist arrival numbers, particularly for those countries that have historical and natural heritage. Perhaps, many experienced travelers have expectations that they would require paying bribes to corrupt authorities for travel visa or permits to some tourist destinations in order to make things accessible. Moderation effect results indicate that political instability reduces tourism demand even in UNESCO-listed heritage destinations.