Journal
BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Volume 13, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
BIOMED CENTRAL LTD
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-13-316
Keywords
All-cause mortality; Clostridium difficile related mortality; Non-Clostridium difficile related mortality; Clinical prediction rule
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Funding
- University of Exeter, Systems Biology Initiative
- RDE NHS Trust
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula (PenCLAHRC)
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)
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Background: Clostridium difficile infection poses a significant healthcare burden. However, the derivation of a simple, evidence based prediction rule to assist patient management has not yet been described. This study aimed to identify such a prediction rule to stratify hospital inpatients according to risk of all-cause mortality, at initial diagnosis of infection. Method: Univariate, multivariate and decision tree procedures were used to deduce a prediction rule from over 186 variables; retrospectively collated from clinical data for 213 patients. The resulting prediction rule was validated on independent data from a cohort of 158 patients described by Bhangu et al. (Colorectal Disease, 12(3): 241-246, 2010). Results: Serum albumin levels (g/L) (P = 0.001), respiratory rate (resps /min) (P = 0.002), C-reactive protein (mg/L) (P = 0.034) and white cell count (mcL) (P = 0.049) were predictors of all-cause mortality. Threshold levels of serum albumin <= 24.5 g/L, C-reactive protein >228 mg/L, respiratory rate >17 resps/min and white cell count >12 x 10(3) mcL were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. A simple four variable prediction rule was devised based on these threshold levels and when tested on the initial data, yield an area under the curve score of 0.754 (P < 0.001) using receiver operating characteristics. The prediction rule was then evaluated using independent data, and yield an area under the curve score of 0.653 (P = 0.001). Conclusions: Four easily measurable clinical variables can be used to assess the risk of mortality of patients with Clostridium difficile infection and remains robust with respect to independent data.
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