Journal
JOURNAL OF LAND USE SCIENCE
Volume 8, Issue 1, Pages 104-122Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/1747423X.2011.628705
Keywords
emission scenario; land-use change; biomass burning; RCP
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Funding
- Global Environmental Research Fund of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan
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Using a socioeconomic scenario of representative concentration scenarios, terrestrial emissions from biomass burning and anthropogenic land-use change for the twenty-first century are evaluated in a spatially explicit manner using a biogeochemical model. The model is validated with the historical net land-use change CO2 emission and biomass-burning trace gas emission: net land-use change CO2 emission for 1990s to be from 1.03 to 1.53 Pg C year(-1) and black carbon emission from biomass burning during 1997-2000 to be 3.1 Tg BC year(-1). For future emissions, uncertainty due to CO2 concentration and land-use change scenario is examined using sensitivity experiments and reveals significant effect of CO2 on the biomass-burning emissions in terms of direct effect of vegetation mass and the indirect feedback through the fire ignition probability. It also reveals the importance of CO2 fertilization on net land-use change CO2 emission through the regrowing absorption in abandoned agricultural land.
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