Immunodeficiency scoring index to predict poor outcomes in hematopoietic cell transplant recipients with RSV infections

We developed an immunodeficiency scoring index for respiratory syncytial virus (ISI-RSV) infection, based on a cohort of 237 allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (allo-HCT) recipients, that can predict the risk of progression to lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and RSV-associated mortality. A weighted index was calculated using adjusted hazard ratios for immunodeficiency markers. Based on the ISI-RSV (range, 0-12), patients were stratified into low (0-2), moderate (3-6), and high (7-12) risk groups. A significant trend of increasing incidence of LRTI and RSV-associated mortality was observed as the risk increased from low to moderate to high (P < .001). Patients in the high-risk group had the greatest benefit of ribavirin-based therapy at the upper respiratory tract infection stage and the highest risk for progression to LRTI and death when antiviral therapy was not given (6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8-23.6] and 8.1 [95% CI, 1.1-57.6], respectively). The ISI-RSV is designed to stratify allo-HCT recipients with RSV infection into groups according to their risk for progression to LRTI and RSV-associated mortality. Identification of high-risk groups using this index would distinguish patients who would benefit the most from antiviral therapy, mainly with aerosolized ribavirin. The ISI-RSV should be validated in a multi-institutional study.