Journal
GEORISK-ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF RISK FOR ENGINEERED SYSTEMS AND GEOHAZARDS
Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 9-24Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2014.1001401
Keywords
Bayesian methods; construction cost; decision analyses; probabilistic site characterization and modelling; underground construction
Funding
- Rock Engineering Research Foundation (BeFo)
- Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co.
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Geoengineering prognoses are often based on data from a limited number of investigations of soil and rock mass. There is generally a desire to reduce the uncertainty in the prognoses while minimising the investigation costs. Value of Information Analysis (VOIA) is a support for decisions regarding investigation strategies and the aim of this paper is to present methodology for VOIA that takes into account four decision alternatives where the input data could be provided by experts. The methodology will be applied in a case study where the value of information related to an investigation borehole will be calculated. The results indicate that the value of information of the borehole is low compared with the realisation costs of the investigation. It was found that models for VOIA in underground construction projects are complex but that the analysis can be simplified with extensive use of expert knowledge and calculations of the value of perfect information as a benchmark for investigation strategies.
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