The predictive validity of bipolar at-risk (prodromal) criteria in help-seeking adolescents and young adults: a prospective study

Objectives: There are no established tools to identify individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder. We developed a set of ultra-high-risk criteria for bipolar disorder [bipolar at-risk (BAR)]. The primary aim of the present study was to determine the predictive validity of the BAR criteria. Methods: This was a 12-month prospective study that was conducted at Orygen Youth Health Clinical Program, a public mental health program for young people aged 15-24 years in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. At intake, BAR screen-positive individuals and a matched group of individuals who did not meet BAR criteria were observed over a period of 12 months. The BAR criteria include general criteria such as being in the peak age range for the onset of the disorder, as well as subthreshold mania, depression plus cyclothymic features, and depression plus genetic risk. Conversion to first-episode mania/hypomania was defined by the presence of DSM-IV manic symptoms for more than four days, in line with the DSM-IV definition of hypomania/mania. Results: A total of 559 help-seeking patients were screened. Of the eligible participants, 59 (10.6%) met BAR criteria. Thirty-five participants were included in the BAR group and 35 matched participants were selected to be in the control group. During the follow-up, five BAR patients out of 35 (14.3%) converted to first-episode hypomania/mania as opposed to none in the non-BAR group [chi(2) (1) = 5.38, p = 0.020]. Four out of these five converters had a DSM-IV diagnosis of bipolar I or bipolar II disorder. Conclusions: These findings support the possibility of identification of persons prior to the onset of mania/hypomania. The proposed criteria need further evaluation in larger, prospective studies with longer follow-up periods.