Towards sustainable de-growth - medical survey data as predictors for estimation of niche market value - gluten-free beer market case

Big brewing companies often look for sustainable resource and energy management rather than for minimization of negative social impact or maximization of positive ones. That's why sustainable degrowth in production sounds like nightmare to them. Several activities on market such as demand for product personalization force manufacturers' response. But few niche markets with huge personalization potential are still underestimated by big producers. To bridge the gap between company profits and sustainable de-growth, the useful tools for niche market value estimation, which could help in investments decision making, have been worked out. The medical data reports were used to assess the socio-demographic characteristic of customer of gluten-free beer. This market is still in its starting phase as big producers are not especially interested in beer products, which require significant investments in production process. A celiac disease (CD) is chronic inflammatory enteropathy induced with presence of gluten, its prevalence is estimated as 1:100, which suggest that 1 person per 100 absolutely can't drink typical barley/Wheat beer. The equations for calculation model were elaborated based on medical reports of CD occurrence in Poland and then in Europe; total population and adult population data in 2013 (Eurostat); the Bart-Haas report of beer production in 2013 and average prices of gluten-free beers manufactured and sold in Europe. The final formulas of beer production increase and the value of gluten-free beer market have been elaborated. Results reveal that almost 6.5 million of adult people in Europe must comply with gluten-free diet. Value of gluten-free beer market in Europe is estimated as 3.3 billion EUR/annual for average price 3 EUR for 0.5 I. Introduction of gluten-free beer into market will increase production by at least 0.1% up to even 1%. It is a value in range of 0.55-5.5 million hectolitres per year. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.