Niche Conservatism and Future Changes in the Potential Area Coverage of Arundina graminifolia, an Invasive Orchid Species from Southeast Asia

The Asian orchid, Arundina graminifolia, has been introduced to many locations over the last 50yr, predominantly in South and Central America. A list of localities of A.graminifolia was compiled and used to model potential climatic niches based on the maximum entropy method. The differences are presented between niches occupied by native and invasive populations of A.graminifolia, and possible changes in the potential range of the species are discussed on the basis of various climate change scenarios. The coverage of habitats suitable for A.graminifolia will be reduced under future climate changes scenarios. The created niche distribution models indicated a more significant reduction in the potential ecological niches of the studied species in its invasive range. Nevertheless, areas with potentially suitable bioclimatic conditions for A.graminifolia should be monitored to prevent future uncontrolled invasion of the orchid into new habitats and to study its impact on the local ecosystems, as vast areas of its potential niche in the Americas are still unoccupied.