Spiral of silence on social media and the moderating role of disagreement and publicness in the network: Analyzing expressive and withdrawal behaviors

Using two-wave panel data from Hong Kong, this study examines the spiral of silence process on social media. It extends the theoretical framework by including both supporting and disagreeing opinion expression and examining not only expressive but also withdrawal behaviors on social media. This study also investigates the moderating roles of disagreement and publicness as two affordances on social media that influence the spiral of silence process. Results from the moderated mediation model with a panel lagged and autoregressive analysis suggest that fear of social isolation (FSI) has an indirect effect on discouraging disagreeing opinion expression but not supporting opinion expression and on encouraging withdrawal behaviors through enhancing willingness to self-censor (WTSC) on social media. This indirect effect is contingent on the levels of disagreement and publicness in one's network. Higher levels of disagreement and publicness promote the spiral of silence. Implications of the findings are discussed.