Markov modeling of sleep stage transitions and ultradian REM sleep rhythm

Objective: One of the highly characteristic features of sleep is the cyclic occurrence of non-rapid eye movement (NREM) and REM sleep, which is referred to as the ultradian rhythm of sleep. Even though REM sleep was discovered over half a century ago, surprisingly, the mechanism of the ultradian REM sleep rhythm has not yet been fully elucidated. In the present study, we aim to provide a mechanistic insight into the generation of the ultradian REM sleep rhythm. Approach and Main results: By simulating hypnograms with the dynamic features of sleep stage transitions, i.e. stage transition probabilities and stage-specific survival time functions, we show that the second-order Markov transition probabilities and the stage-specific survival time functions can reproduce the central position (similar to 90 min) of the REM-onset intervals (ROIs), but with a larger variance in distribution. In addition, we demonstrate the direct effect of the increased probability of the transitions from light to deep sleep within NREM sleep on the prolongation of the ROIs in a dose-response manner. Significance: These results suggest that dynamic sleep stage transitions constitute the basis of the formation of the ultradian rhythm of sleep; however, further elaboration of the model would be required to reduce the variability in rhythmicity.