Journal
ACTA DIABETOLOGICA
Volume 55, Issue 1, Pages 13-19Publisher
SPRINGER-VERLAG ITALIA SRL
DOI: 10.1007/s00592-017-1047-1
Keywords
Incident diabetes; Prediction; Risk score; Cohort study
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation [NSFC-81473051, 81522040, NSFC-81230069]
- Program for the New Century Excellent Talents in University [NCET-11-0169]
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The aim of this study was to develop a new risk score system to predict 5-year incident diabetes risk among middle-aged and older Chinese population. This prospective study included 17,690 individuals derived from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort. Participants were recruited in 2008 and were followed until October 2013. Incident diabetes was defined as self-reported clinician diagnosed diabetes, fasting glucose >= 7.0 mmol/l, or the use of insulin or oral hypoglycemic agent. A total of 1390 incident diabetic cases were diagnosed during the follow-up period. beta-Coefficients were derived from Cox proportional hazard regression model and were used to calculate the risk score. The diabetes risk score includes BMI, fasting glucose, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, current smoking status, and family history of diabetes. The beta-coefficients of these variables ranged from 0.139 to 1.914, and the optimal cutoff value was 1.5. The diabetes risk score was calculated by multiplying the beta-coefficients of the significant variables by 10 and rounding to the nearest integer. The score ranges from 0 to 36. The area under the receiver operating curve of the score was 0.751. At the optimal cutoff value of 15, the sensitivity and specificity were 65.6 and 72.9%, respectively. Based upon these risk factors, this model had the highest discrimination compared with several commonly used diabetes prediction models. The newly established diabetes risk score with six parameters appears to be a reliable screening tool to predict 5-year risk of incident diabetes in a middle-aged and older Chinese population.
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