Predictions of future meteorological drought hazard (similar to 2070) under the representative concentration path (RCP) 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya, Northern Ethiopia

There are very few scientific studies on the predictions of future drought hazard and its effects on economic, social, and environmental under the existing global climate change scenarios. This study, aims to predict the future meteorological drought hazard (2016-2070) under the representative concentration path 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya and its environs, Northern Ethiopia. The study also investigates the onset, end set, duration, magnitude, intensity, frequency, severity and spatial coverage of future drought occurrences. Monthly tropical applications of meteorology using satellite data and ground-based observations and daily AgMERRA daily climatic data were used from 19 meteorological stations. A robust interpolation technique called Inverse distance weighted was also applied to assess the spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall. Then, the temporal seasonal rainfall variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation. A standardized precipitation index at 3 months time scale was applied to measure the precipitation deficit and characterize drought properties. The results reveal an increasing and worsening drought event in the future than the last three decades. Hence, the study area will be stricken for about 30-39 times with mild to extreme droughts. The rate of drought recurrence will also be once in every 1.8-2.3 years. The duration (1-5 years) of drought will be similar in all districts, but the magnitude and intensity will vary due to the level of precipitation deficit. It is, therefore, recommended that policy or decision makers and smallholder farmers should improve the existing water management and agricultural practices to cope up with the climate extremes and boost agricultural productivity.