Long-run processes of geographical concentration and dispersion: Evidence from Germany

This paper analyses the evolution of geographical concentration in German manufacturing and service sectors over a long time period. Drawing on detailed plant data of 187 industries from 1980 to 2010, we corroborate previous studies and observe substantial concentrations in both sectors. However, we also document a secular trend of deconcentration over three decades, even in knowledge-intensive industries. By constructing counterfactual distributions, we show that the underlying mechanisms differ across sectors. Dispersion of manufacturing industries is driven by closing or contracting plants within industrial agglomerations, while dispersion of the service sector is fostered by the creation of new plants.