Potential distribution of Pinus cembroides, Pinus nelsonii and Pinus culminicola in northeastern Mexico

The world's climate has changed significantly in recent years and with it the distribution of species. The aim of the study was to generate potential distribution models of three pinyon pine species, Pinus cembroides, P. culminicola and P. nelsonii, of northwestern Mexico. To establish the most accurate model, two scenarios were used: a) with 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables, and b) with the same variables plus the topographic variables of elevation, slope and exposure. It was modeled with REMIB CONABIO records, a total of 208, 89 and 67 records for each species with logistic adjustment and 500 iterations. The Jacknife test was performed to establish the participation percentage of the variables in the model. The results show that both scenarios adequately predict the potential distribution of the species studied. According to the AUC value, the model fits are better for restricted-distribution species with 0.999 for P. nelsonii and P. culminicola and 0.998 for P. cembroides, the model integrating elevation, minimum temperature and slope, with an average contribution of 18.6, 16.6 and 32.8% for each variable. The potential distribution of P. cembroides can be extended in northeastern Mexico, because the model significantly integrated maximum temperature variables and discriminated those derived from precipitation.