Vulnerability to climate change and the variations in factors affecting farmers' adaptation: A multi-group structural equation modelling study

This study investigates how factors that influence farmers' intentions to adapt to climate change differ from each other in regions with different levels of vulnerability to climate change. Data were collected from interviews with 598 rice farmers in Dong Thap, Soc Trang and Long An provinces in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. These provinces were identified respectively as highly, moderately and mildly vulnerable to climate change. Multi-group structural equation modelling was employed. There are some differences regarding factors that influence farmers' adaptation intentions and the magnitude of the diverse influences across the three provinces. Perceived risks of climate change and perceived influences of the increases in electricity, water and fuel prices significantly influence farmers' adaptation intentions only in Long An. Soc Trang farmers are significantly influenced by the pressures from other people in adaptation intentions. Denial of climate change risk, wishful thinking and fatalism significantly affect farmers' adaptation intentions in both Dong Thap and Long An. The perceived effectiveness of adaptive measures is important to adaptation intentions in all provinces. Thus, vulnerability levels do matter to factors affecting farmers' intentions to adapt. However, the influences of these factors on adaptation intention are not significantly different across the three regions. This may imply a minor difference in the vulnerability levels of the three regions. Local farmers are either not aware of their vulnerability levels; or vulnerability is not an important factor guiding farmers' adaptation intentions. Some policy implications are drawn for formulating more effective adaptation strategies.