The Forecasting of PM2.5 Using a Hybrid Model Based on Wavelet Transform and an Improved Deep Learning Algorithm

In recent years, the haze has caused serious troubles to peoples lives, with the continuous increase of PM2.5 emissions. The accurate prediction of PM2.5 is very crucial for policy makers to make predictive measures. Due to the nonlinearity of the PM2.5 time series, it is difficult to predict accurately. Despite some studies about PM2.5 being proposed, the problem of the LSTM (long short-term memory) gradient disappearance and random selection of wavelet orders and layers isnt still solved. In this study, a novel model based on WT (wavelet transform)-SAE (stacked autoencoder)-LSTM is proposed. Firstly, six study sites from China are taken as examples and WT is used to decompose PM2.5 time series into several low-and high- frequency components based on different samples. Secondly, the decomposed components are predicted based on SAE-LSTM. Finally, the predicted results are reconstructed in view of all low-and high-frequency components and the predicted results are obtained. The results imply that: (1) the forecasting performance of SAE-LSTM is better than that of other models (e.g., BP (back propagation)) used for comparison; (2) for six different PM 2.5 samples, four orders five layers, five orders six layers, five orders seven layers, three orders six layers, five orders seven layers, and five orders six layers are the most appropriate. The conclusion that such a novel model may help to enhance the accuracy of PM 2.5 prediction can be drawn.