Effective bioeconomy? a MRIO-based socioeconomic and environmental impact assessment of generic sectoral innovations

The European Commission (EC) expects a bioeconomic transition to have both environmental and socioeconomic benefits. While bioeconomic impact assessments exist, they usually focus on a particular sustainability dimension and on specific products or technologies. To draw a more holistic picture, this paper aims to analyze the substitution impacts of four bioeconomic innovations in terms of policy objectives as formulated by the EC. We estimated the indirect impacts resulting from a partial replacement of non-bio-based inputs with bio-based substitutes in the transport equipment, construction, textile, and chemical sectors. A multi-regional input-output (MRIO)-based approach was used to yield point estimates and uncertainty intervals. While our results point to a number of possible socioeconomic and environmental benefits, there is an astonishing diversity of outcomes across the scenarios with regard to their potentials and limitations to contribute to policy objectives. Decisions on future utilization paths of biomass will strongly influence the characteristics of an upcoming bioeconomy in terms of sustainability. Mere promotion of additional biomass use as a policy strategy is not sufficient to pursue the development of an effective bioeconomy capable to deliver sustainable growth.