Journal
URBAN CLIMATE
Volume 31, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100545
Keywords
CA-Markov model; Multi-criteria AHP method; LULC; GIS; Addis Ababa
Funding
- Addis Ababa University Office of the Director of Research under the thematic research title Resource efficiency, environmental quality and sustainability of urban areas in Ethiopia [TR/11/2013]
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Efficient Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) monitoring and management require awareness of previous dynamics, current trends, and predictions of future developments. Understanding such an urban dynamics is, thus, necessary to deliberate a proper urban growth management approach. The study is aimed to simulate the LULC dynamics and develop a scenario-based LULC prediction for sustainable urban growth planning and management in the case of Addis Ababa and the surrounding area. The research employed a hybrid Cellular Automata, Markov chain (CA-Markov) and Multi-criteria Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) modeling approach. Accordingly, the research depicted continuous historical increment of Built-up spaces by consuming other ecologically valuable LULC classes. The quantitative measures of landscape metrics confirmed the benefit of Ecologically Sensitive Scenario (ESS) modeling as compared to Business As Usual Scenario (BAUS) as it keeps the dynamism of the city region more sustainable. ESS modeling enables an urban system to grow into a better way by making built-up augmentation relatively mild and controlling water bodies, forests and cultivated land losses. Therefore, this scenario-based simulation of the LULC dynamics providing decision-making options for those who strive for sustainable urban growth planning and management not only in the study region but also other similar cities.
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