Journal
FORESIGHT AND STI GOVERNANCE
Volume 14, Issue 2, Pages 7-22Publisher
NATL RESEARCH UNIV HIGHER SCH ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.2.7.22
Keywords
coronavirus disease (COVID-19); strategies; forecasting; sustainable development; post-coronavirus scenarios; SARIMA; input-output analysis; development programmes
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China was the first country to face the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Owing to the prompt and decisive actions of the authorities, and the consolidation of society, the country has passed the peak of infection and economic activity is gradually recovering. The paper shows how COVID-19 affects key industries and the work of supply and transportation networks. Using input-output spatial data, migration index indicators, and pandemic spread statistics, we modeled different scenarios for changes in Chinese provinces' production and consumption following the COVID-19 pandemic. Calculations were made for 31 provinces and 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. We obtained a model that shows how the coronavirus outbreak influences carbon dioxide emission, levels of hazardous waste, and the Energy-Resource Efficiency Rating. Based on the financial and migration flows between Chinese provinces, we chose the most effective post-outbreak model. Our main recommendation is that one does not need to segregate consumers. It is necessary to distribute the damage as evenly as possible between all provinces equally. We believe that such an approach will allow the Chinese economy to suffer the least possible amount of damage and facilitate a faster recovery. Finally, we analyze the development of bilateral post-epidemic financial flows between China and Russia until 2025. In all scenarios, a temporary decline is expected. The results of the study may be useful for other countries in developing policies to overcome the post-epidemic crisis.
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