Modelling the impact of predicted climate change on landslide frequency and magnitude in SE England

General circulation models (GCMs) predict an increase in rainfall and temperature for SE England as a consequence of the build up of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in the global atmosphere. This paper uses a geographical information system (GIS)-based combined slope hydrology/stability model linked to downscaled GCM data to assess the likely impact of such a change on the frequency and magnitude of landslide activity. The model has been applied to a 4 km section of the Lower Greensand escarpment near Hythe, Kent, SE England which has a history of landslide activity, and is typical of many inland landslides in SE England. The results indicate that increases in rainfall will be matched by increases in evapotranspiration, leaving the frequency of large landslides unchanged. However, the modelling suggests an increased dynamism of shallow soil moisture stores which may lead to a reduction in frequency of smaller landslides over the next 80 years. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.