Journal
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
Volume 45, Issue 1, Pages 27-42Publisher
IAHS PRESS, INST HYDROLOGY
DOI: 10.1080/02626660009492304
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Three approaches to modelling the duration of streamflow droughts at eight southern African sites are considered; a non-parametric method (that of Kaplan-Meier) is compared with the fitting of two simple parametric models: the exponential and Weibull. All techniques allow the instantaneous probability of a drought coming to an end to differ between wet and dry seasons, using the concept of censored data. Model-fitting is discussed, and the Kaplan-Meier estimates permit an assessment of the fit of the parametric models, with the aim of finding a parsimonious model for the data, which can be used for predictive purposes. In most cases considered herein, either the exponential or Weibull approach is found to be adequate.
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