A Bayesian analysis to estimate loss in squid catch due to the implementation of a sea lion population management plan

This study estimates the effect of a sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) population management plan on both the sea lion population and the associated squid (Nototodarus sloanii) fishery. The goal of the management plan is to rebuild the sea lion population and involves closing the squid fishery when a threshold level of sea lions have been caught. The threshold level is calculated from a generalized simulation analysis which conservatively allows for adequate population rebuilding for a number of different species and populations. Our analysis uses Bayesian theory to describe uncertainty in the sea lion population size and squid catch under the implementation of the management plan. The priors represent this particular sea lion population, and the analysis represents expectation rather than calculating conservative levels of safe fishing-related mortality. The results show that the squid catch is very sensitive to whether or not the squid fishery is closed when it exceeds the threshold level for sea lion bycatch. The sea lion population size is much less sensitive to the closure of the squid fishery. For an economically important fishery, the estimates of uncertainty in both loss of catch and increase in sea lion population are needed to allow informed decision-making about trade-offs between sea lion conservation and full exploitation of the fishery.