Modeling the land requirements and potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in Brazil and India using the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

The governments of Brazil and India are planning a large expansion of bioethanol and biodiesel production in the next decade. Considering that limitation of suitable land and/or competition with other land uses might occur in both countries, assessments of potential crop productivity can contribute to an improved planning of land requirements for biofuels under high productivity or marginal conditions. In this paper we model the potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in both countries. Land requirements for such expansions are calculated according to policy scenarios based on government targets for biofuel production in 2015. Spatial variations in the potential productivity lead to rather different land requirements, depending on where plantations are located. If jatropha is not irrigated, land requirements to fulfill the Indian government plans in 2015 would be of 410000 to 95000 km(2) if grown in low or high productivity areas respectively (mean of 212000 km(2)). In Brazil land requirements, are of 18000-89000 km(2) (mean of 29 000 km(2)), suggesting a promising substitute to soybean biodiesel. Although future demand for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil is approximately ten times larger than in India, land requirements are comparable in both countries due to large differences in ethanol production systems. in Brazil this requirement ranges from 25 000 to 211000 km(2) (mean of 33000 km(2)) and in India from 7000 to 161000 km(2) (mean 17000 km. Irrigation could reduce the land requirements by 63% and 41% (24% and 15%) in India (Brazil) for jatropha and sugarcane respectively. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.