Modelling the sensitivity of Mediterranean Outflow to anthropogenically forced climate change

The possible future impact of anthropogenic forcing upon the circulation of the Mediterranean, and the exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar is investigated using a Cox-type model of the Mediterranean at 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees resolution, forced by control and greenhouse scenarios provided by the HadCM2 coupled climate model. The current structure of the Mediterranean forced by the control climate is compared with observations: certain aspects of the present circulation are reproduced, but others are absent or incorrectly represented. Deficiencies are most probably due to weaknesses in the forcing climatology generated by the climate model, so some caution must be exercised in interpreting the enhanced greenhouse simulation. Comparison of the control and greenhouse scenarios suggests that deep-water production in the Mediterranean may be reduced or cease in the relatively near future. The results also suggest that the Mediterranean outflow, may become warmer and more saline, but less dense, and hence shallower. The volume of the exchange at the Strait of Gibraltar seems to be relatively insensitive to future climate change, however. Our results indicate that a parameterisation of Gibraltar exchange and Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) production may be able to provide adequate representation of the changes we observe for the purposes of the current generation of climate models.