Uncertainty in natural resource decision support systems: sources, interpretation, and importance

Decision support systems (DSS) have been defined as computer-based systems that integrate data sources with modeling and analytical tools; facilitate development, analysis, and ranking of alternatives; assist in management of uncertainty; and enhance overall problem comprehension. Of these capabilities, uncertainty assessment is the most poorly understood and implemented. Uncertainty assessment provides methodology to estimate the reliability of recommended alternatives, to place confidence intervals about the most likely outcome, or to quantify the likelihood of exceeding some environmental threshold. The extent to which this affects management decisions, and how it integrates with other management science disciplines such as risk assessment, remains largely unexplored territory. This paper briefly outlines sources of uncertainty in DSS, techniques for quantification, and then explores the relevance and importance of uncertainty in the larger decision-making context. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.