Journal
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
Volume 95, Issue 450, Pages 363-374Publisher
AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC
DOI: 10.2307/2669373
Keywords
Bayesian filter; deer management models; kernel smoothing; state-space models
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For prudent wildlife management based on population dynamics models, it is important to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the management advice. Much parameter uncertainty originates when It Is not possible to parameterize the population management model for a population of interest using data from that population alone. Instead, information about parameter values obtained from other populations of the same species, or even from similar species, must be used. In addition, the age structure of wildlife populations is generally unknown. We show how sequential importance sampling can be used for combining information on demographic processes, obtained from closely studied populations, with aggregated count and cull information from the population to be managed. We resample parameter sets using kernel smoothing, which has the effect of perturbing parameter values. We show how the fitted model can be used to explore alternative culling strategies for red deer in Scotland.
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